Global Investor December 2011
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| Contents
This month’s Star property
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| Market snapshot Global Interest Rates Exchange rates £1 buys:
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| Market update As we approach the end of 2011 it is interesting to look back and see just how resilient the housing market has been during what can only be described as an economic rollercoaster year. The Nationwide house price index reveals that UK house prices increased by 0.4% in November. Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, said: “UK house prices increased by 0.4% in November, taking the annual rate of growth to 1.6%, up from 0.8% the previous month. The price of a typical home is now £165,798.” “House prices have remained surprisingly resilient in recent months, despite the deterioration in the economic outlook. But, with the UK economic recovery expected to remain sluggish well into 2012, house price growth is likely to remain soft, with prices moving sideways or drifting modestly lower over the next twelve months.” This is a view shared by Halifax’s housing economist, Martin Ellis who said: “Prices fell by 0.9% between October and November. This followed October’s 1.2% gain, therefore, continuing the very mixed monthly pattern seen this year. Overall, house prices have remained remarkably stable in 2011 despite the difficult and deteriorating economic climate and the substantial pressure on households’ finances. The UK average price now is only marginally lower than at the end of 2010. In addition, activity has recently shown a few signs of strengthening a little. We expect the market to remain broadly unchanged in terms of both prices and sales over the coming few months as demand and supply conditions alter little.” The Hometrack house price survey also recorded a decline in prices for the month at 0.2%. However, this is a tiny figure and just re-enforces the fact that the market is holding firm against a backdrop of unprecedented global economic instability. With little change expected next year in either direction, and rental prices anticipated to continue their upward trajectory, this very much remains an investors market. In the news
In the last month there have been more searches for property in France than ever before, according the latest monthly report from Rightmove Overseas. Currency expert Charles Purdy, managing director at Smart Currency Exchange, said they have also seen an increase in buyers seeking money transfers to buy in France. ‘Our experience is very similar with France continuing to be ever popular. Buyers tend to be in a position to act quickly and therefore get better value for money. Also we have seen some weakness in the euro which has reduced the sterling cost of their new property,’ he said. ‘The recent upheaval with David Cameron exercising his veto has seen the euro weaken to over €1.18/£1, a level last seen in the first few months of 2011. Market forecasters are predicting further weakness for the euro which should encourage increased interest in buying in France and elsewhere in the Eurozone,’ he added. Bank united over rates and quantitative easing The Bank of England voted unanimously to keep interest rates on hold at 0.5% and quantitative easing at the same level of £275bn earlier this month, according to minutes of the meeting. Members of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) concluded the risks for growth and inflation had not changed over the last month. But the minutes added that further quantitative easing “might well become warranted in due course”. Region profile – USA
The United States conjures up images of good living. Big cars, spacious homes, huge shopping malls, world class theme parks and every kind of landscape imaginable – it’s the American dream.
At almost 10m square kilometres and with over 300 million people, the United States is the third largest country on earth by both total land area and population. With the biggest economy in the world and the highest military budget by far (43% of global military spending), the USA is the world’s only remaining super power. Blessed with some of the planet’s most spectacular landscape, from the Nevada Desert to the Florida Everglades; the Rocky Mountains to the prairies of the Midwest, and the ancient forests of the west coast to the tropical beaches of the south, this is a country that really does have it all. The United States is a relatively new country. Gaining independence from Great Britain in the late 18th century it has grown dramatically ever since. A melting pot for countless diverse nationalities, the country is made up of people from all corners of the world and continues to draw millions of people each year all searching for their own piece of the American dream. This is also a highly visited country. 2nd in the world by visitor numbers, tourism adds billions of dollars to the American economy annually. Home of the theme parks, Florida alone welcomes over 5 million international visitors each year.
Property can now be purchased very cheaply right across the country and in some of the very finest locations thereby offering some irresistible investment potential. As a result of the difficulties, property prices in many areas have fallen by as much as 70% with the level of bank foreclosed property reaching 5 to 10 times the long term average in some of the worst hit regions. This has resulted in many people having to turn to the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) housing choice voucher programme more commonly known as section 8. This has, however, opened up a huge opportunity for investors to not only purchase excellent property at well below even build cost but to also benefit from high tenant demand, tenant screening and rental payments paid directly by the US government. Under this scheme net yields of between 10% and 15% are easily achieved and future capital growth looks exceptional. The United States without doubt currently offers some of the best property investment opportunities in a generation. It deserves the attention of any serious property investor. We currently have a number of unbelievable property investment opportunities in the USA. Click here for more details of these and our other great property investment opportunities around the world. Tax matters
France and Spain are among the most popular choices for Brits buying property abroad. Some may be deterred by the image these countries have of being ‘high tax’ countries, particularly as they both have what are called ‘wealth taxes’, but this needn’t be so. However, it’s a good idea to be aware of the tax system in any country before you commit yourself to buying, and this is where a professional adviser will prove invaluable. In particular, if you are considering buying a property in Spain, or you already own one, you should be aware that Spain is reintroducing its Wealth Tax with effect from 31 December 2011. Wealth Tax is a tax that is imposed on the capital value of your assets, whether they produce income or not. If you are resident in Spain, you will pay Wealth Tax on your worldwide assets. If you are not resident in Spain, you will only pay Wealth Tax on your Spanish assets. Broadly speaking, you will be considered resident in Spain for tax purposes if you spend more than half the year in Spain. If your assets – in Spain or worldwide, as the case may be – are worth more than €700,000, you will have to pay the new Wealth Tax. The rates of tax range from 0.2% to 2.5%. There is a partial exemption for the value of your home, so even if you live in Spain you may not have any Wealth Tax to pay at all. The Wealth Tax, or Impuesto Sobre El Patrimonio, was suspended with effect from 2008. In September the Spanish government announced that the suspension would be lifted for two years. The first tranche of Wealth Tax is payable on assets you may hold at 31 December 2011. France also imposes a Wealth Tax, but in contrast to Spain its minimum asset threshold was recently raised to €1.3m. There is also a partial exemption for those who have become resident in France within the last five years. In summary, owners of French or Spanish property worth close to or more than the thresholds would be well advised to seek proper, professional advice, as would those considering buying such property. Having said that, whilst tax is a consideration it should not be a reason not to buy! Rachel Finch is a tax partner at Burton Sweet chartered accountants, specialising in international tax. If you would like to contact Rachel, please email us at enquiries@w-wideproperty.com and we will put you in touch. And finally
Even during past economic downturns property has fared rather well as an investment. Sure, prices have fallen but never by 100% as with many stocks and shares. And of course with property, even if the price does fall you still have the original tangible asset. This provides future growth, thus quickly recouping any losses and then moving further into profit; and what a profit!!! Just look at the last decade to get an idea. Anyway, this got me thinking. How has the last decade compared to previous decades? So I downloaded Nationwide’s house price data right back to when their records began in 1973, and here’s what I found. In 1973 the average house price according to the Nationwide house price index was £9,767. Did you or your parents buy a house back then? So let’s break the average house down into 10 year periods. As the records start at 1973 we’ll use an 8 year period to get us started. In this 8 years house prices rose 143%. In the next 10 years they rose again, by 130%. In the following 10 years (and this covers the recession of the early 1990’s) they rose by 54%, and in the 10 years to date guess what? They rose further by 93%. There’s a pretty interesting pattern here wouldn’t you say? So let’s look ahead. Assuming this pattern repeats itself (and I certainly don’t know of anyone who thinks otherwise) the average house price in 38 years time could be a cool £2.7m. Once again, if you base this on an initial deposit of 15% (£24,989), and take interest payments out of the equation for simplicity, the return would be just over £2.5m. Now who wouldn’t be interest in an investment like that? To your success
Kevin Wilkes
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